McGraw Hill Integrated II, 2012
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McGraw Hill Integrated II, 2012 View details
Practice Test
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Exercise 17 Page 937

Follow the steps for designing a simulation using random number generators.

See solution.

We are given the percentages that express how often the team punts, kicks a field goal, loses possession, and scores a touchdown. Let's design and conduct a simulation to estimate the probability that this team will do each activity in the next minute of a game. First let's review the steps for designing a simulation.

  1. State each possible outcome and the corresponding theoretical probability.
  2. Determine if there are any assumptions.
  3. Choose and describe an appropriate probability model for the situation.
  4. Define a trial for the situation and choose the number of trials to be conducted.

We will follow these steps, conduct the simulation, and report the results.

Designing a Simulation

Since we are interested in the probability that our team will do each of 4 activities, we have 4 possible outcomes. Based on the given information, we will assume that the theoretical probability that the team will do each activity is the same as the given percentages.
Possible Outcomes Theoretical Probability Written as Fraction
Punting 40 % 8/20
Kicking a Field Goal 30 % 6/20
Losing Possession 5 % 1/20
Scoring a Touchdown 25 % 5/20

Let's use a random number generator to perform the simulation. To do this, because we expressed the probabilities as fractions with denominators of 20, we will assign the integers from 1 to 20 to represent the probability data. Punting:& 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 Kicking a Field Goal:& 9,10,11,12,13,14 Losing Possession:& 15 Scoring a Touchdown: & 16,17,18,19,20 Each trial — one generated number — will represent the action that will happen in the next minute of a game. Let's choose the number of trials to be 20.

Conducting and Summarizing Data from a Simulation

We will use the random number generator in our graphing calculator. To do so, push the MATH button. Then scroll left to the PRB menu and choose the fifth option, randInt(.

After choosing this option, enter the minimum and maximum values of the set and the number of trials. Next, push ENTER.

Now we can make a frequency table to show the example results of our simulation. Remember the numbers that we assigned to represent each result when keeping track of the outcomes.

Outcome Tally Frequency
Punting ||||| |||| 9
Kicking a Field Goal ||||| 5
Losing Possession | 1
Scoring a Touchdown ||||| 5
Total - 20

Using the results from the table, we can calculate the experimental probability P of doing each activity. We will divide the frequency of doing each activity by the number of trials, 20.

Outcome Frequency Probability P
Punting 9 9/20 or 45 %
Kicking a Field Goal 5 5/20 or 25 %
Losing Possession 1 1/20 or 5 %
Scoring a Touchdown 5 5/20 or 25 %

Finally, we can create a bar graph showing these results.

Notice that this is only an example solution, as we can think of many other simulations we can design and conduct using the given information.