Sign In
| | 10 Theory slides |
| | 11 Exercises - Grade E - A |
| | Each lesson is meant to take 1-2 classroom sessions |
Here are a few recommended readings before getting started with this lesson.
When discussing probability, a pair of events can be either independent or dependent.
Two events A and B are independent events if the occurrence of one event does not affect the occurrence of the other. It is also said that they are independent if and only if the probability that both events occur is equal to the product of the individual probabilities.
Two events A and B are considered dependent events if the occurrence of either event affects the occurrence of the other. If the events are dependent, the probability that both events occur is equal to the product of the probability of the first event occurring and the probability of the second event occurring after the first event.
Finding the number of possible outcomes of a combination of independent events can be tricky or time-consuming. Luckily, there is a shortcut!
In this example, the store sells 2 types of notebooks, one with a ring binding and one with a spiral binding. Each notebook type comes in 3 different colors: blue, red, and green. According to the Fundamental Counting Principle, there are 6 different outcomes for which notebook a customer may buy. 2* 3 = 6 It should be noted that this is an informal justification and should not be taken as a formal proof.
As mentioned above, this principle holds true only if the events are independent of each other. If the events are dependent, multiplying the number of possible outcomes for each event will not reflect the actual number of possible outcomes. Returning to the notebooks for sale, suppose now that the spiral-bound notebooks only come in red.
There are still 2 types of notebooks and a total of 3 colors for the ring-bound notebooks. However, the possible number of different notebooks a customer may buy is not 2* 3= 6. Rather, it is 4. This happens because the number of possible colors of the notebook now depends on the type of notebook.
While preparing the raffle, Tiffaniqua considered inviting everyone who purchased a ticket to roll a die and toss a coin.
|
Fundamental Counting Principle |
|
If an event A has n possible outcomes and an event B has m possible outcomes, then the total number of different outcomes for A and B combined is n * m. |
For Tiffaniqua's game, event A is rolling the die and event B is tossing the coin. The total number of different outcomes for rolling the die and tossing the coin is the product of the number of possible outcomes of rolling the die and the number of possible outcomes of tossing the coin. 6 * 2 = 12 There are 12 possible outcomes, so Tiffaniqua would need to come up with 12 prizes for the raffle. The number of possible outcomes can also be found using a tree diagram.
According to the tree diagram, there are 12 possible outcomes. This is the same number as the one found using the Fundamental Counting Principle. Tiffaniqua wanted to have more possible prizes, so she decided to come up with another idea for the game with more possible outcomes!
The probability of winning a teddy bear is equal to the number of favorable outcomes divided by the number of possible outcomes. There is only 1 favorable outcome — rolling a 5 and getting tails. There are 12 possible outcomes, as shown in Part A. P(Teddy bear) &= Favorable outcomes/Possible outcomes &⇓ P(Teddy bear) &= 1/12 The probability of winning a teddy bear is 112.
In a compound event, the order in which the outcomes occur can sometimes be important. For example, suppose three digits are randomly chosen as a combination to a lock. The outcome 482
is different from the outcome 248,
even though they are made up of the same digits. When the order is important, permutations can be used.
A permutation is an arrangement of objects in which the order is important. For example, consider constructing a number using only the digits 4, 5, and 6 without repetitions. Any of the three digits can be picked for the first position, leaving two choices for the second position, then only one choice for the third position.
In this case, there are six possible permutations. 456 465 546 564 645 654 Although all these numbers are formed with the same three digits, the order in which the digits appear affects the number produced. Each different order of the digits creates a different number. The number of permutations can be calculated by using the Fundamental Counting Principle.
Number of permutations&=3*2*1 &⇕ Number of permutations&=6Tiffaniqua chose 5 prizes to display at her stall — a movie ticket, a CD, a basketball, a teddy bear, and a pair of sunglasses. She was sure they would attract many people to her raffle!
The next step was to decide what order she should line the prizes up in.
| First Prize | 5 choices |
|---|---|
| Second Prize | |
| Third Prize | |
| Fourth Prize | |
| Fifth Prize |
When choosing the second prize, there are only 4 possible outcomes because one of the five items has already been chosen for the first prize in the arrangement.
| First Prize | 5 choices |
|---|---|
| Second Prize | 4 choices |
| Third Prize | |
| Fourth Prize | |
| Fifth Prize |
For the same reason, there are 3 choices for the third prize, 2 choices for the fourth prize, and only 1 choice for the fifth prize.
| First Prize | 5 choices |
|---|---|
| Second Prize | 4 choices |
| Third Prize | 3 choices |
| Fourth Prize | 2 choices |
| Fifth Prize | 1 choice |
By the Fundamental Counting Principle, the total number of possible arrangements of the prizes is the product of the numbers of possible outcomes of each choice. 5 * 4 * 3 * 2 * 1 = 120 There are 120 possible ways for Tiffaniqua to order the five prizes. In other words, there are 120 permutations of the 5 prizes.
| First Prize | 1 option (Teddy Bear) |
|---|---|
| Second Prize | |
| Third Prize | 1 option (CD) |
| Fourth Prize | |
| Fifth Prize |
The second prize could be the sunglasses, the basketball, or the movie ticket, so there are 3 options for the second prize in the lineup.
| First Prize | 1 option (Teddy Bear) |
|---|---|
| Second Prize | 3 options |
| Third Prize | 1 option (CD) |
| Fourth Prize | |
| Fifth Prize |
The fourth prize cannot be the teddy bear, the CD, or whatever was placed in the second place in the arrangement. This means that there are 2 options left for the fourth prize. Similarly, there is only 1 option left for the final item in the arrangement after the fourth prize is chosen.
| First Prize | 1 option (Teddy Bear) |
|---|---|
| Second Prize | 3 options |
| Third Prize | 1 option (CD) |
| Fourth Prize | 2 options |
| Fifth Prize | 1 option |
The Fundamental Counting Principle says that the number of possible arrangements of the second, fourth, and fifth prizes is the product of the numbers of options for each choice. 1* 3* 1* 2 * 1 = 6 There are 6 possible ways to arrange the second, fourth, and fifth items when the first item in the lineup is the teddy bear and the third item is the CD. This means that out of the 120 arrangements found in Part A, there are 6 outcomes where the first prize is the teddy bear and the third prize is the CD. P(Teddy bear first, CD third) = 6/120 ⇕ P(Teddy bear first, CD third) = 1/20 When choosing the order of the prizes for the display at random, the probability that the teddy bear is the first prize in the lineup and the CD is the third prize is 120.
Just before the fundraiser started, a new sponsor decided to donate a bunch of new prizes to Tiffaniqua! It was too late to change the way the game works to accommodate the new prizes, so Tiffaniqua decided to add a mystery prize grab.
Players can donate money to draw a random prize from a box of 20 unique prizes without taking part in the raffle. The big box contains prizes like a pair of gloves and a pair of socks.
Diego is playing a card game. In the game, he has a hand of five cards.
He decides to line up the cards in his hand in a random order.
What is the probability that he randomly lines up the cards in the following order?
Diego holds five cards in his hand. He randomly lines them up. We want to find the probability that he arranges the cards in the given order.
Each possible arrangement of the cards is a permutation of the set of cards that Diego is holding. To find the number of possible permutations, we can use the Fundamental Counting Principle. Ordering the cards can be viewed as a compound event consisting of five simple events — choosing the first, second, third, fourth, and fifth cards separately.
Fundamental Counting Principle |- If an event A has n possible outcomes and an event B has m possible outcomes, then the total number of different outcomes for A and B combined is n * m.
Diego has five cards, so there are 5 possible choices when picking the first card in the arrangement. When picking the second card, there are 4 choices left, as one card has already been moved. Similarly, there are 3 options left when choosing the third card, 2 choices left when choosing the fourth card, and 1 choice left when choosing the final card. ccccc First & Second & Third & Fourth & Fifth Card & Card & Card & Card & Card 5& 4& 3& 2& 1 By the Fundamental Counting Principle, the total number of possible outcomes is the product of the numbers of outcomes of each simple event. 5 * 4 * 3 * 2 * 1=120 There are 120 ways that Diego could arrange his cards. This means that there are 120 possible outcomes for this compound event. There is only 1 favorable outcome where he lines up the cards in the given order. The probability that the cards are arranged in the given order is the quotient of the number of favorable outcomes and the number of possible outcomes. P(king, queen,3,5,7)=1/120
Now we will find the probability that the first two cards are the king and the queen. Let's find the number of favorable outcomes! The first card can be either the king or the queen, so there are 2 positive outcomes when choosing the first card. ccccc First & Second & Third & Fourth & Fifth Card & Card & Card & Card & Card 2&&&& The remaining face card must be the second card in the order, so there is only 1 favorable outcome. Then, any of the three remaining cards can be chosen as the third card. There are 2 outcomes for choosing the fourth card and just 1 outcome for choosing the last card. ccccc First & Second & Third & Fourth & Fifth Card & Card & Card & Card & Card 2& 1& 3& 2& 1 By the Fundamental Counting Principle, there are 2 * 1 * 3 * 2 * 1, or 12, favorable outcomes for the compound event. We found in Part A that there are 120 possible ways to arrange the cards. The probability that the queen and the king are the first two cards is equal to the quotient of the number of favorable outcomes and the number of possible outcomes. P(king and queen are first two cards) &= 12/120 &⇕ P(king and queen are first two cards) &= 0.1
Dylan is choosing an outfit. He needs a shirt, pants, and a jacket. He has 7 shirts, 5 pairs of pants, and 3 jackets.
We are given that Dylan is putting together an outfit from seven shirts, five pairs of pants, and three jackets. Let's start by using the Fundamental Counting Principle to find the number of possible outfits he could make. Choosing the outfit can be considered a compound event consisting of three simple events — choosing a shirt, a pair of pants, and a jacket.
Fundamental Counting Principle |- If an event A has n possible outcomes and an event B has m possible outcomes, then the total number of different outcomes for A and B combined is n * m.
Dylan has seven shirts, so there are 7 possible outcomes when picking the shirt. Similarly, he has five pairs of pants, so there are 5 possible outcomes of choosing the pants. Finally, there are 3 outcomes of choosing a jacket since Dylan has three jackets. ccc Shirt&Pants&Jacket 7& 5& 3 By the Fundamental Counting Principle, the total number of possible outcomes is the product of the numbers of outcomes of each simple event. 7 * 5 * 3=105 There are 105 ways in which Dylan could assemble his outfit. There is only one way to choose a specific shirt, pair of pants, and jacket, so there is 1 favorable outcome. The probability of choosing the specific shirt, pair of pants, and jacket is the quotient of the number of favorable outcomes and the number of possible outcomes. P(specific shirt, pants, and jacket)=1/105
Let's find the probability that a randomly chosen outfit includes one of his three favorite shirts and one of his two favorite pairs of pants. There are 3 favorable outcomes of choosing a shirt and 2 favorable outcomes of choosing the pants. ccc Shirt&Pants&Jacket 3& 2& It does not matter which jacket Dylan chooses, so there are 3 favorable outcomes of choosing a jacket. ccc Shirt&Pants&Jacket 3& 2& 3 By the Fundamental Counting Principle, there are 3 * 2 * 3, or 18, favorable outcomes for the compound event. We know that Dylan can put together 105 different outfits. The probability that a randomly chosen outfit includes a favorite shirt and pair of pants is equal to the quotient of the number of favorable outcomes and the number of possible outcomes. P(favorite shirt and pants) &= 18/105 & ⇕ P(favorite shirt and pants) &= 6/35
Four cards are drawn from a standard deck. After each card is drawn, it is recorded and then placed back in the deck before the next card is drawn.
Four cards are drawn from a standard deck with each card being replaced before the next is drawn. We want to find the probability that all four cards are aces. Let's use the Fundamental Counting Principle.
Fundamental Counting Principle |- If an event A has n possible outcomes and an event B has m possible outcomes, then the total number of different outcomes for A and B combined is n * m.
We can think of drawing the four cards as a compound event consisting of four simple events of drawing a card. Each simple event has 52 possible outcomes because each card is drawn from a full deck. cccc First & Second & Third & Fourth Card & Card & Card & Card 52& 52& 52& 52 By the Fundamental Counting Principle, the number of possible outcomes to the compound event is equal to the product of the numbers of outcomes of each simple event. 52* 52* 52* 52 = 7 311 616 The number of possible outcomes is 7 311 616. There are four aces in a standard deck, which means that there are 4 favorable outcomes when drawing each card. cccc First & Second & Third & Fourth Card & Card & Card & Card 4& 4& 4& 4 By the Fundamental Counting Principle, there are 4* 4* 4* 4, or 256, favorable outcomes. The probability that all four cards are aces is the quotient of the number of favorable outcomes and the number of possible outcomes. P(all aces) &= 256/7 311 616 & ⇕ P(all aces) & = 1/28 561
Next we will find the probability that the second and third cards drawn are both the ace of spades. We know from Part A that there are 7 311 616 possible outcomes of drawing 4 cards. Let's find the number of favorable outcomes! There are no restrictions on the first and fourth cards, so there are 52 favorable outcomes when choosing them. cccc First & Second & Third & Fourth Card & Card & Card & Card 52&&& 52 There is only one ace of spades in the deck, so there is 1 favorable outcome when choosing both the second and third cards. cccc First & Second & Third & Fourth Card & Card & Card & Card 52& 1& 1& 52 By the Fundamental Counting Principle, the total number of favorable outcomes is 52* 1* 1* 52, or 2704. The probability that the second and third cards are both the ace of spades is the quotient of the number of favorable outcomes to the number of possible outcomes. 2704/7 311 616 = 1/2704 The probability that the second and third cards are the ace of spades is 12704.
Finally, we will find the probability that all four cards are diamonds. We know that there are 7 311 616 possible outcomes of drawing four cards from the deck. Let's find the number of favorable outcomes for drawing four diamonds! There are 13 diamonds in a standard deck of cards, so there are 13 positive outcomes for choosing each card. cccc First & Second & Third & Fourth Card & Card & Card & Card 13& 13& 13& 13 The Fundamental Counting Principle tells us that the total number of favorable outcomes is 13* 13* 13* 13, or 28 561. The probability that all four cards are diamonds is the quotient of the number of favorable outcomes to the number of possible outcomes. P(all diamonds)& = 28 561/7 311 616 & ⇕ P(all diamonds)&= 1/256
Four cards are drawn from a standard deck. After each card is drawn, it is put away so that it cannot be drawn again.
Four cards are drawn from a standard deck. The cards are not replaced before the next one is drawn. We want to find the probability that all four cards are aces. We can view our the drawing of the four cards as a compound event consisting of four simple events — drawing each card separately. Let's use the Fundamental Counting Principle.
Fundamental Counting Principle |- If an event A has n possible outcomes and an event B has m possible outcomes, then the total number of different outcomes for A and B combined is n * m.
Drawing the first card has 52 possible outcomes. Since the first card is not replaced before the second is drawn, drawing the second card has 51 possible outcomes. Similarly, there are 50 outcomes when drawing the third card and 49 outcomes when drawing the fourth. cccc First & Second & Third & Fourth Card & Card & Card & Card 52& 51 & 50 & 49 By the Fundamental Counting Principle, the number of possible outcomes is equal to the product of the numbers of outcomes of each simple event. 52* 51* 50* 49 = 6 497 400 There are 6 497 400 possible outcomes when drawing four cards. A standard deck has four aces, so there are 4 favorable outcomes when drawing the first card. There are three aces left, so there are 3 favorable outcomes when drawing the second card. Then, drawing the third card has 2 favorable outcomes and drawing the fourth card has only 1 favorable outcome. cccc First & Second & Third & Fourth Card & Card & Card & Card 4& 3& 2& 1 By the Fundamental Counting Principle, there are 4* 3* 2* 1, or 24, favorable outcomes of drawing four aces. The probability that all four cards are aces is the quotient of the number of favorable outcomes and the number of possible outcomes. P(all aces) &= 24/6 497 400 & ⇕ P(all aces) &= 1/270 725
Next, let's find the probability that the second and third cards drawn are both the ace of spades. We know from Part A that there are 6 497 400 possible outcomes when drawing four cards from the deck. Let's find the number of favorable outcomes! There are no restrictions on the first card, so there are 52 favorable outcomes when choosing it. cccc First & Second & Third & Fourth Card & Card & Card & Card 52&&& There is only one ace of spades in a standard deck, so there is 1 favorable outcome when choosing the second card. However, when we draw the third card, it cannot be the ace of spades because we did not replace the one we previously drew into the deck. The card no longer exists in the deck, so there are 0 favorable outcomes! cccc First & Second & Third & Fourth Card & Card & Card & Card 52& 1& 0& By the Fundamental Counting Principle, the total number of favorable outcomes is the product of the numbers of favorable outcomes of each simple event. No matter how many favorable outcomes there are when choosing the last card, the product will be 0 because one of the factors is 0. 52* 1* 0 = 0 The probability that the second and third cards are both the ace of spades is the quotient of the number of favorable outcomes and the number of possible outcomes. 0/6 497 400 = 0 The probability that the second and third cards are the ace of spades is 0. After all, it is impossible to draw two aces of spades from a standard deck unless the cards are replaced after being drawn!
Finally, let's find the probability that all four cards are diamonds. There are 6 497 400 possible outcomes for drawing the four cards. Let's find the number of favorable outcomes! There are 13 diamonds in a standard deck of cards, so there are 13 favorable outcomes for choosing the first card. cccc First & Second & Third & Fourth Card & Card & Card & Card 13&&& There are 12 diamonds left after the first diamond is drawn, so there are 12 favorable outcomes when drawing the second card. Similarly, there are 11 and 10 favorable outcomes when drawing the third and fourth cards, respectively. cccc First & Second & Third & Fourth Card & Card & Card & Card 13& 12& 11& 10 By the Fundamental Counting Principle, the total number of favorable outcomes is 13* 12* 11* 10, or 17 160. The probability that all four cards are diamonds is the quotient of the number of favorable outcomes and the number of possible outcomes. P(all diamonds) &= 17 160/6 497 400 & ⇕ P(all diamonds)&= 11/4165